Free Tools
Free Decision Analysis Calculators
Quick, free tools to screen your plans and initiatives. These calculators provide directional guidance - for full Monte Carlo simulation with thousands of scenarios, try Incertive.
Monte Carlo Simulation Calculator
Turn a three-point estimate into a full distribution
Enter optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic values and run 10,000 simulations to see the real range of outcomes - P50, P80, P90, and the probability of hitting your target. Seeded, so the same inputs reproduce the same result.
PERT Calculator (Three-Point Estimate)
Weighted three-point estimate with confidence ranges
Compute the PERT expected value (O + 4M + P) / 6, the standard deviation, and 68% and 95% confidence ranges from your three estimates. A fast estimate for any task, and a natural lead-in to Monte Carlo.
Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Calculator
Put a dollar figure on project risk
Enter each risk's probability and cost impact to get its Expected Monetary Value (probability x impact) and a total that makes a defensible contingency reserve. Enter opportunities as negative impacts.
Risk Matrix Calculator (5x5)
Score and triage any risk instantly
Rate a risk by probability and impact on an interactive 5x5 matrix to get its risk score (1-25), severity band from Low to Critical, and a recommended action. The fast way to prioritize a risk register.
Project Success Probability Estimator
Estimate your project's probability of success instantly
Answer 5 questions about your project type, budget, timeline, team experience, and risk factors. Get an estimated success probability plus key insights - free, no signup required. For a full Monte Carlo analysis, upgrade to Incertive.
Go/No-Go Decision Calculator
Quick assessment for any plan or initiative
Rate six uncertainty factors - market demand, technical complexity, resource availability, financial risk, timeline pressure, and competitive landscape - to get a directional go/no-go recommendation. A simplified tool for early-stage decision screening.
Simplified Tools, Real Limitations
These calculators use simple math - weighted averages and basic scoring - to give you a quick directional read on your plan. They are useful for early-stage screening: quickly identifying whether an initiative has obvious red flags or obvious strengths.
What they cannot do is model how your risk factors interact, compute compound probabilities, identify tail risks, or generate alternative approaches. Those capabilities require Monte Carlo simulation - running thousands of scenarios that sample from probability distributions and reveal the actual shape of your outcome distribution.
Use these calculators to screen ideas quickly. When you find an initiative that passes the basic screening and involves real money, real risk, or real commitment - that is when you need Incertive's full platform.
Ready for Real Monte Carlo Analysis?
These calculators give you a rough read. Incertive gives you the actual probability of success - with up to 5,000 simulations, sensitivity analysis, and probability-backed recommendations.
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